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Chapter 3

Small business budgeting and forecasting

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Small business guides > Your guide to starting a business > Budgeting and forecasting

Small business budgeting and forecasting

It’s time to run some numbers on your business idea. Budgeting and forecasting help with that. Let’s break down the basics so you can build a financially sustainable business.

What is a budget?

A budget predicts how much money will come and go from your business over a period of time (usually a year). Budgeting and forecasting help startups see if they can afford to start a business – and if it will repay all their hard work with a return on their effort.

The purpose of a budget

Budgets predict the money-making potential of a business, but they also tell you things like:

  • how much it will cost to start up

  • whether you’ll need to borrow money

  • your breakeven point

  • what you need to charge customers

  • if you can afford staff

How to make a budget

Start off by listing your costs and note roughly when they’ll hit. The timing is important to small business budgeting because it affects your cash flow. Do the same for income.

Cash flow budget graph shows money running out twice during the year, even though the year ends with a lot of cash in bank
List of projected costs
Formula for projected income

Budgeting is so nice, you ought to do it twice

Make a budget that assumes a solid first year, and another that assumes a slow start. That second budget won’t be so much fun to create, but you’ll be glad to have it up your sleeve if things don’t take off. Bank managers and investors will also want to see two budgets.

Get help from an accountant or bookkeeper

Accountants and bookkeepers work with small businesses all day, every day. They can help get your numbers right. Find one in the Xero advisor directory.

Find advisor

Small business budgeting mistakes to avoid

  • Don’t forget to deduct sales and income tax from sales revenue 
  • Some jobs go wrong, and some inventory gets broken so build in contingencies
  • Remember to calculate how much interest you’ll pay on loans
  • Factor in costs to insure your business against liabilities and disasters
  • Put money aside to cover depreciation of assets like work tools (because you’ll have to replace them eventually)
Meryl Johnston, Bean Ninjas

"Reduce financial risk by validating your business idea first. For example, you could open a pop-up store first, instead of paying for the fit-out of a retail store.”

Meryl Johnston, Bean Ninjas, Xero gold partner

Creating a financial plan for your business

Try not to freak out about this red part of the graph:


That’s just part of being a startup and will appear in most small business budgets. It will take time for customers to find and trust you, so sales will be slow in the beginning. Meanwhile you’ll have a lot of set-up costs to contend with. 

Include a section in your business plan on how you’ll make up the difference. Will you dip into personal savings? pitch investors? go to the bank? or turn to family and friends?

Learn more in our guide to finance.

The difference between a budget and a forecast

Budgeting and forecasting are often treated the same, but there are important differences. Small business budgeting shows how you expect the business to perform over a given period. Forecasts use real-life sales and cost data to show where things are actually headed.

For obvious reasons, you want to know if the two are seriously out of whack. So check your budget against actual business numbers regularly. That way you can fix problems before they get too big, and spot opportunities before they’re missed. Plus the exercise will help you get better at estimating costs and income for the years ahead. Small business budgeting and forecasting go hand in hand.

Cristina Garza - Accountingprose

“It’s important to not only budget for costs that occur monthly, but also the costs that happen once or twice a year. Don't get surprised by a big lump sum insurance payment, for example.”

Cristina Garza, Accountingprose, Xero gold partner

Chapter 4: Pricing strategies and the COGS

Set prices that will make money without scaring off customers. Learn how to use COGS and pricing strategies to keep your business profitable.

Read chapter 4

This guide is intended as general information only. Always check with a professional for advice.


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